BJP Meets its Waterloo in the South? : The Karnataka Story’23

On the fatal night of 18th June 1815, the formidable French army fighting under the leadership of Napolean Bonaparte was crushed by the allied forces of The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Prussia under the resolute leadership of Wellington in the fierce Battle of Waterloo. This battle marked the end of Napolean’s reign with him being deported to the island of St. Helena, where he died in 1821. The Karnataka Elections’ 23 is also seen by some as a Battle of Waterloo for the BJP with respect to South Indian Politics as the BJP loses its control over the only South Indian State it ruled on. This election was very crucial for the BJP as it aims to bypass the 300 total once again in the General Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Meanwhile, an absolute majority win by the Congress with a total of 135 seats out of 224 seats has fostered some confidence in the waning INC camp. Some experts solely attribute this win to the anti-incumbency force persistent in the state of Karnataka, but is it really true? Read on as this article unearths the reasons for this ever-sweeping win by the Congress and what could be its impact on the Lok Sabha Elections’ 24.

Before looking at the specific reasons, let us take a shallow dive into Karnataka’s intriguing political history.

Karnataka was first formed as Mysore State in November 1956, under the States Reorganisation Act and later it was renamed Karnataka in 1973. Since the independence of India, Congress had managed to win the Karnataka Elections every single time. However, in 1983, for the first time ever Janata Party rose to power by emerging as the single largest party. Later in the fresh elections of 1985, the Janta Party achieved an absolute majority and Ramakrishna Hegde was sworn in as the CM of Karnataka. In 1989, things turned again once again with Congress forming a majority government. However, in 1990 post the communal clashes, Rajiv Gandhi decided to sack the then CM Veerendra Patil which turned the Lingayat Community against INC. The Lingayat community in Karnataka is a major factor and so in the 1994 Elections, the Janata Party rose to power and BJP increased its seats from 4 to 40. It was in 2008, that the BJP finally won in Karnataka with a total of 110 seats and BS Yeddyurappa being sworn as the CM. The anti-incumbency continued since 1985 with Congress and BJP forming governments in 2013 and 2019 respectively and today, we again have the Congress Government in 2023.

The Karnataka elections were very important for BJP because it had two-fold roles. Primarily, BJP wanted to develop a Karnataka Model, to foray into the South Indian States on the same line as it did in North India using the Gujarat Model. Secondly, this election is going to have a strong bearing on the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections as it has 28 seats for Karnataka.

BJP left no stone unturned to win in Karnataka by focusing on infrastructural improvements through the allocation of ₹764.32 Billion, which is 33% of Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna and the success of the Bengaluru- Mysore Expressway. In a bid to woo the two important communities in Karnataka- The Lingayats and the Vokkaligas, it ended the 4% Muslim Reservation and conceded 2% each to the two communities. Yet, BJP’s seats plummeted from 116 to 66 in 2023.

One of the key reasons in this election was that unlike other elections, Congress had a super on the ground campaigning with Development, Welfare, Poverty and Unemployment being the pressing issues. The 40% Commission issue, which was an allegation made by the Karnataka State Contractors Association that they are charged a commission of 40% for every project was raised consistently in their campaigns which aroused mistrust against BJP. The following Five guarantees given by Congress also seemed promising to the masses:

1. Gruha Laxmi - Monthly ₹2,000 to each woman head

2. Gruha Jyotu - Providing 200 units of free electricity to all households

3. Anna Bhaagya - Providing 10kg rice monthly to each person in BPL families

4. Yuva Nidhi- Providing to every unemployed graduate and diploma holder, ₹3,000 and ₹1,500 monthly respectively.

5. Uchita Prayana Scheme - Providing Free Bus Travel to all women

The Congress, in its campaign, managed to project strong organizational coherence as well by putting their state leaders DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah on the front foot in their campaigns. Whereas, BJP relied more on National Leaders and the roadshows by Narendra Modi and Amit Shah. To add fuel to the fire, Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi left BJP and joined Congress. Another reason was the division of votes between BJP and JDS as the former tried to foray into Old Mysore, a fortress of JDS and thus conceding a lot of advantage to Congress. Lastly, the anti-incumbency in Karnataka proved to be the final nail in the coffin for BJP.

Will the results of these elections impact the General Elections of 2024? Although the Congress Chief, Sharad Pawar remains optimistic as he believes that the Karnataka results present a picture of the 2024 elections, the history has a different story to tell. The BJP was able to win by a thrashing margin in 2019, although it had lost in the 2018 elections in Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh. In fact, it managed to win the 2019 by-elections in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka post winning the general elections. Even in 2014, BJP managed to come into power even after losing the 2013 Karnataka elections. Considering that the Congress is yet to find a healthy candidate to compete against Modi in 2024 and the stronghold that BJP has in North India, it is highly unlikely that the Karnataka Elections could in fact, turn the tables in favor of Congress in 2024. However, only time can decide who will rise to power in this fickle world of politics while the Congress decides between DK Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah as to who shall be sworn in as the next Chief Minister of Karnataka.

- Raghav Singhal